Richard Janes makes the case that we should Prepare For The Death & Rebirth of Hollywood.

His thesis is threefold: power will pass from agents to producers, theatre screens will be bought by streamers and production will embrace 8-hour days in new centres.

I’m not going to be able to do his history lesson and argument justice but the gist is:

“…why do producers now get passed the mantle of power? Content demand. Today there is so much content needed to be made that it’s becoming harder and harder for TV networks and studio development teams to have such a hands-on approach to developing projects. Netflix is going through a massive commissioning spree as traditional broadcasters and studios pull their content from the Netflix catalogue to launch their own services. …[hence] a new (or old) breed of Hollywood producer comes into play. Producers who can find content, fully develop it quickly, and earn the trust of financiers who simply look at the budget and a new rich data set behind cast, genre, and other key talent that validates potential audience numbers (data that has only really been available for the last 5 years), and send them off to make the project, delivering it with a big fat bow ready for consumption.”

As to exhibition:

“…movie theaters are going to turn into entertainment centers with big money pumped into them, creating premium experiences in a way that the current owners never could. Amazon will buy AMC or one of the big three. They’ll do special screening deals for Prime members. They’ll program content based on the viewing data of Amazon Prime members around each of their theaters and they’ll market directly to audiences on their own platform to create hype before bigger roll outs both in theaters and via streaming.”

In order to return to film production in these COVID times, safety will be paramount:

“The hours can be brutal. That’s got to change. No sleep equals lower immune systems, tired crew means opening yourself up to basic health and safety mistakes that could allow a virus to run rife. The alternative is longer shooting schedules, 8 hour days, 5 day weeks — the French model.”

He also predicts a crew shortage and lots of ‘runaway’ production.

Richard concludes:

“The death and rebirth of Hollywood is upon us. There are opportunities in every sector of the industry. There really is no greater time — wherever you live in the world — to be in film and television. BUT it’s time to innovate and hustle.”

My take: this is a long and fascinating read, one I highly recommend. Some might think Richard Janes doesn’t know what he’s talking about but his experience in Hollywood guides his prognostications. He’s the first in a long time that I think have it bang on.