Two vastly different distribution strategies went head-to-head recently.
Following the status quo, Christopher Nolan‘s Tenet was released theatrically.
Disney+’s Mulan forwent cinemas and was streamed as PVOD (premium video-on-demand) exclusively to its subscribers.
Both are $200-million-plus movies that normally would have been summer blockbusters. How did they do?
Forbes‘ Scott Mendelson reports that “opening in 2,810 American theaters, including some in California, Tenet grossed $20.2 million over its Thurs-Mon Labor Day weekend.” Ten days into its domestic release, The Numbers reports the worldwide gross as $207,500,000.
Daniel Roberts of Yahoo Finance reports “downloads of Disney+ spiked 68% from Friday, Sept. 4 through Sunday, Sept. 6, compared to one weekend prior. Consumer spending in the app also spiked 193%, which can obviously be attributed to customers paying the $30 ‘Mulan’ fee.” Ten days into its international release, The Numbers reports the worldwide gross as $39,601,014 — but this does not include ANY of the streaming revenue.
Because Disney has not released its streaming revenue attributable to Mulan, comparing the two distribution strategies is kind of like comparing apples with kumquats. Stabs have been made to guesstimate the number but it remains a mystery.
Nevertheless, Mendelson claims:
“Mulan is outright bombing in China, having earned $8.27 million on Saturday, just 5% from its mediocre $7.9 million Friday gross. Credit the Chinese media blackout, online piracy from last week’s PVOD debut via Disney Plus or that the film isn’t clicking with Chinese moviegoers and Disney made a mistake to presume they would automatically show up.”
It seems neither distribution strategy is doing particularly well.
My take: CV-19 is upending the standard distribution model. While I applaud experiments in new ways to get movies to the masses, I can’t help but wonder if the summer blockbuster is dead. $200-million-plus movies require too large a box office to break even. I suggest immediately making more modest-budget movies. (Hey, throw me $10 million and I’ll deliver a moneymaker.) Check out this primer from Gray Kotze for comparisons between movies at three cost-points: