Category Archives: Coming Soon

The film industry as usual, not

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Richard Janes makes the case that we should Prepare For The Death & Rebirth of Hollywood.

His thesis is threefold: power will pass from agents to producers, theatre screens will be bought by streamers and production will embrace 8-hour days in new centres.

I’m not going to be able to do his history lesson and argument justice but the gist is:

“…why do producers now get passed the mantle of power? Content demand. Today there is so much content needed to be made that it’s becoming harder and harder for TV networks and studio development teams to have such a hands-on approach to developing projects. Netflix is going through a massive commissioning spree as traditional broadcasters and studios pull their content from the Netflix catalogue to launch their own services. …[hence] a new (or old) breed of Hollywood producer comes into play. Producers who can find content, fully develop it quickly, and earn the trust of financiers who simply look at the budget and a new rich data set behind cast, genre, and other key talent that validates potential audience numbers (data that has only really been available for the last 5 years), and send them off to make the project, delivering it with a big fat bow ready for consumption.”

As to exhibition:

“…movie theaters are going to turn into entertainment centers with big money pumped into them, creating premium experiences in a way that the current owners never could. Amazon will buy AMC or one of the big three. They’ll do special screening deals for Prime members. They’ll program content based on the viewing data of Amazon Prime members around each of their theaters and they’ll market directly to audiences on their own platform to create hype before bigger roll outs both in theaters and via streaming.”

In order to return to film production in these COVID times, safety will be paramount:

“The hours can be brutal. That’s got to change. No sleep equals lower immune systems, tired crew means opening yourself up to basic health and safety mistakes that could allow a virus to run rife. The alternative is longer shooting schedules, 8 hour days, 5 day weeks — the French model.”

He also predicts a crew shortage and lots of ‘runaway’ production.

Richard concludes:

“The death and rebirth of Hollywood is upon us. There are opportunities in every sector of the industry. There really is no greater time — wherever you live in the world — to be in film and television. BUT it’s time to innovate and hustle.”

My take: this is a long and fascinating read, one I highly recommend. Some might think Richard Janes doesn’t know what he’s talking about but his experience in Hollywood guides his prognostications. He’s the first in a long time that I think have it bang on.

New Lionsgate production safety guidelines leaked

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The Wrap has reported that draft Lionsgate production safety guidelines have been leaked.

Lionsgate has said the draft has seen numerous revisions since. It promotes four main steps to success: distance, sanitation, enforcement and change, and also specifies:

  • Maintain a distance of six feet at all times
  • Use VR scouting of locations
  • Workers should undergo complete quarantine (as paid hold days) for two weeks prior to shooting and two weeks after the shoot
  • Restrict shooting to 10-hour days
  • Permit no non-essential personnel on set or in production offices
  • Cast and crew should receive health and body temperature checks when entering sets or offices
  • No crew member should be near cast unless they are part of the makeup, hair, sound or wardrobe departments and are wearing masks and gloves
  • Divide lunch breaks into two times
  • On-set meals should be ordered and packaged individually
  • Talent should consider personalized drivers
  • Use CG extras.

Read the new safety guidelines at Scribd.

My take: film production, like all businesses, needs to find the tricky balance between profit and people. No one wants to infect, and potentially kill, someone, but most people are obliged to work to pay their bills, and corporations want to provide their services to society. I just wish we had a Universal Basic Income so only those folks that truly want to work would have to, and perhaps at reduced hours. A ten-hour shooting day sounds ideal!

Theatrical windows to close?

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Last month’s lockdown may have forever challenged the sacrosanct theatrical film exhibition 90-day window.

The film that led the charge? Trolls: World Tour!

Scott Mendelson writes in Forbes that Universal is reporting that Trolls: World Tour has earned around $100 million in the first three weeks of domestic “premium VOD” or PVOD (which costs $20 for 48 hours.)

After further analysis, he concludes:

“I think that the coronavirus-related closures and unease will hasten an inevitable process whereby movie theaters become the place where only the biggest would-be mega-budget blockbusters (or genre-specific tentpole releases) play on the big screen while almost everything else goes to VOD, DVD and/or streaming.”

Indie Wire quotes the WSJ that Universal Studios CEO Jeff Shell says: “As soon as theaters reopen, we expect to release movies on both formats.”

In protest, the AP reports that AMC (the world’s largest theatre chain) counters:

“Going forward, AMC will not license any Universal movies in any of our 1,000 theatres globally on these terms. Accordingly, we want to be absolutely clear, so that there is no ambiguity of any kind. AMC believes that with this proposed action to go to the home and theatres simultaneously, Universal is breaking the business model and dealings between our two companies.”

Stay tuned.

My take: in the current environment, this is inevitable. How else can the audience see new movies? However, as things relax, will the traditional window prevail? The studios may be quite content to continue releasing on PVOD, especially if a sizable chunk of viewers prefer to stay in the comfort of their homes and avoid sticky theatres. If the DOJ rescinds the Paramount Consent Degrees, I wonder how long it will be before theatre chains either buy studios or go into production for themselves?

Drive-ins still showing movies

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Apparently, you have to go South, way down South, to see a movie outside your home right now.

Beth Webb wonders in Huck if in the age of lockdown, are drive-in cinemas the future?

“With social distancing measures enforced across the world, the film industry has taken a huge hit. But against the odds, a handful of independent drive-ins across the US have adapted to stay alive. Is this the start of a comeback?”

She quotes one drive-in owner:

“Dad and I believe that we have succeeded with our old theatre because basically we treat it as a service and a way to give back rather than as a job or business. And that’s the way we plan on continuing.”

Here are five drive-ins I could find that are still open:

Texas

Alabama

Georgia

South Carolina

Road trip, anyone?

My take: the drive-in is uniquely positioned to offer an entertainment service, being the intersection of wide-open space and automobile culture. It had its heyday in the fifties and sixties but could very well become relevant once again in The Great Pause.

Enter the Corman Quarantine Film Festival

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Stuck at home? Whatcha gonna do? How about making a movie?

Roger Corman is 94 and wants to see what you can do in two minutes.

Just don’t forget to tag it @RogerCorman and #CormanChallenge.

The deadline is April 30, 2020.

My take: this is a lot harder than you might think.

Drive-in makes a comeback in Texas

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Jim Amos reports in Forbes about a Texas cinema chain and its quest to reinvent itself by reviving a blast from the past: the drive-in.

“[Last] weekend, Lone Star state-based EVO Entertainment debuted its drive-in concept at its multiplex in Schertz, Texas, providing movie fans an out-of-the-home outlet to watch recent Hollywood blockbusters. To say the first weekend was a success was an understatement as every show of ‘Spider-Man Homecoming’ since it opened on Friday has been sold out. In fact, every ticket through Tuesday has been sold and the theater is planning on adding additional showtimes later this week.”

“As to how it works from a technical aspect, the exterior wall of the theater was painted with high-gain white paint for increased visibility and sound is transmitted directly to each vehicle through AM/FM radios. Indoor rest rooms are available with sanitary and social distancing measures in place. Films begin at dusk and end in time to meet the local area’s 10 p.m. curfew restriction.”

UPDATE: they’ve been shut down, after their one and only weekend!

“Due to new shelter-in-place restrictions, we have been ordered by the City of Schertz to halt operation of the EVO Drive-In Experience.”

My take: gosh darn! Just when it looked like someone had come up with a safe way to watch movies out of your house by recreating a COVID-safe drive-in!

Pandemic Closes All Cinemas

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The COVID-19 pandemic has closed all 165 Cineplex theatres in Canada (as well as Landmark Cinemas and Imagine Cinemas.)

329/365 - empty house.

In the United States, all AMC and Regal theatres have also closed.

The Los Angeles Times reports that:

“AMC Theatres said it would close all of its U.S. locations, starting Tuesday, for six to 12 weeks in response to the pandemic after President Trump declared that people should avoid gatherings of more than 10 people.”

The moves follow widespread orders to close bars and clubs and other places where people gather to socialize.

My take: although the movie exhibition industry has been in decline for the last decade, it only took one week of this pandemic to kill it. Suddenly VOD is an option for new movies as the 90-day theatre window proves impossible. People will be streaming everything for the next two weeks to two months and it’s going to be hard to get them back into the theatres.

In the meantime, here’s something funny to watch:

COVID-19 infects film business

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The latest fallout from COVID-19 and China closing almost all of its 70,000 cinemas in January: 007 has decided it’s No Time to Release its latest instalment, No Time to Die, postponing it from April to Thanksgiving.

Elsewhere, Vulture‘s Chris Lee reports that the total fallout “could result in a loss of at least $5 billion from diminished box-office returns.”

He then quotes David Unger, chief executive of Artist International Group:

“Who wants to go to the theater right now? Do you want to go sit in a room with a bunch of people that are coughing? It’s going to change viewing patterns. It’s going to change behavior. It’s going to change the way people consume entertainment. This is where streaming becomes normalized for the world and it’s going to be disastrous for the entire industry.”

Meanwhile, Georg Szalai of the Hollywood Reporter reports that some film studios had their best year ever last year: “Among key trends for 2019, Disney hit an all-time film profit record that many say may stand for years.”

The Netflix insights are huge:

  • 167 million total members
  • 61 million U.S. members
  • 106 million international members
  • 2019 free cash flow losses of $3.1 billion
  • Projected 2020 free cash flow losses of $2.5 billion
  • $15.3 billion spent on programming in 2019
  • CFO Spencer Neumann: “well over 50 percent of our cash spend is on originals.”

My take: COVID-19 has the potential to rewire society completely. Imagine if every cinema had to remove every two out of three seats and every second row. OMG, tickets just became six times more expensive! Is this the push VR has been waiting for?

Hollywood tentatively adopts AI prediction tools

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Tom Taulli asks in Forbes if Artificial Intelligence (AI) Can Help Make Hollywood Blockbusters?

Artificial Intelligence & AI & Machine Learning

He reports that:

“Warner Bros. recently struck a deal with Cinelytic, which has built an AI-infused project management system. It is focused on the green-lighting process, such as by helping to predict the potential profits on new films.”

Cinelytic says users can:

“Gain critical insights into how key talent will increase the chances of success of your project, and by how much. Our proprietary economic scoring system, Cinelytic’s TalentScores™, ranks talent by their economic impact across the film industry, including by media type, genre, and key territories.”

See also:

My take: I’m not sure AI tools will help make better Hollywood films. AI tools analyze past successes and compare new projects against old ones. With this in mind, how can we expect anything but retreads of yesteryear’s blockbusters? More comic book films coming soon.

How to test screen your indie feature

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Ben Yennie posts on Guerrilla Rep Media How and Why to Test Screen Your Independent Film and lists five main things that work:

  1. “Invite people who aren’t filmmakers.
  2. Give out printed comment cards/sheets at the close of the event.
  3. Ask the viewers to rate the film on IMDb & give them the ability to at the screening.
  4. Capture emails to let the beta viewers know when the film comes out.
  5. Consider inviting local press.”

Your film should be close to picture lock and the test screening invitees should be strangers representative of your target audience.

The survey you hand out to every single viewer must be printed on paper and ask for their demographics (but not their name) as well as answers to specific feedback questions.

Ben suggests you ask the test screening audience to rate your film on IMDb after completing the paper questionnaire and before the Q&A.

He also suggests you collect their email addresses so you can contact them with news about your film in the future.

Finally, he suggests you invite local press to your test screening to start creating a buzz for your project.

John August has suggestions for your questionnaire.

Don’t want to organize all this? These folks will hold your test screening online — all for $10,000 and up.

My take: this is all good advice. The test screening vlog by Darious above is great too. I must admit I have never heard of asking your test screening audience to rate your film on IMDb before it has been released. The main takeaway from all this is that you don’t want your premiere to be a de facto test screening because it will then be too late to incorporate anything you learn into the finished film. Well, you can, but it will just be much more expensive to make any changes at that point.