Policy Horizons Canada has just released a report that identifies 35 potential global events, ranking them in terms of impact and likelihood, called Disruptions on the Horizon 2024.

Number one? “People cannot tell what is true and what is not.”

Number two? “Billionaires run the world.”

The timeframe? Three to five years. Yikes!

Policy Horizons is “the Government of Canada’s centre of excellence in foresight.” They “identify and explore potential disruptions to enable the creation of robust and resilient policies.”

About People cannot tell what is true and what is not they speculate:

“The information ecosystem is flooded with human- and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-generated content. Mis- and disinformation make it almost impossible to know what is fake or real. It is much harder to know what or who to trust. More powerful generative AI tools, declining trust in traditional knowledge sources, and algorithms designed for emotional engagement rather than factual reporting could increase distrust and social fragmentation. More people may live in separate realities shaped by their personalized media and information ecosystems. These realities could become hotbeds of disinformation, be characterized by incompatible and competing narratives, and form the basis of fault lines in society. Research and the creation of scientific evidence could become increasingly difficult. Public decision making could be compromised as institutions struggle to effectively communicate key messaging on education, public health, research, and government information.”

About Billionaires run the world they surmise:

“Extremely wealthy people use their platforms, firms, foundations, and investments to shape public policy—imposing their individual values and beliefs and bypassing democratic governance principles. As the extremely wealthy increasingly influence public opinion and public policy to secure their own interests, the future of democracy and global governance could be at risk. More billionaires could leverage their control over strategic technologies and enormous wealth concentration to enter arenas formerly reserved for states, such as space exploration and diplomacy. As their power grows, billionaires could gain warfare capabilities and control over natural resources and strategic assets. Some might co-opt national foreign policy or take unilateral diplomatic or military action, destabilizing international relations. This may introduce new uncertainties for governance structures, as private individuals do not have the same decision-making constraints as diplomats, politicians, and military professionals.”

In six to eight years, they wonder if Artificial Intelligence runs wild:

“AI develops rapidly and its usage becomes pervasive. Society cannot keep up, and people do not widely understand where and how it is being used. Market and geopolitical competition could drive rapid AI development while potentially incentivizing risky corner-cutting behavior and lack of transparency. This rapid development and spread of AI could outpace regulatory efforts to prevent its misuse, leading to many unforeseen challenges. The data used to train generative AI models may infringe on privacy and intellectual property rights, with information collected, stored, and used without adequate regulatory frameworks. Existing inequalities may amplify as AI perpetuates biases in its training data. Social cohesion may erode as a flood of undetectable AI-generated content manipulates and divides populations, fueling values-based clashes. Access to essential services may also become uncertain as AI exploits vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, putting many basic needs at risk. As an energy- and water-intensive technology, AI could also put pressure on supplies of vital resources, while accelerating climate change.”

The report organizes the 35 potential disruptions into these five categories:

Society

1. Ageing population has no support: Living circumstances for many elderly people become unbearable as the population ages, and labour and market conditions worsen.
2. Artificial intelligence runs wild: AI develops rapidly and its usage becomes pervasive. Society cannot keep up, and people do not widely understand where and how it is being used.
3. Basic needs go unmet: Mounting environmental crises, weak economic growth, and unstable global and local value chains make it difficult for people in Canada to meet their basic human needs, such as housing, water, food, energy, healthcare, and financial security.
4. Downward social mobility is the norm: People cannot enter the housing market and face increasingly insecure work arrangements. Many Canadians find themselves in lower socio-economic conditions than their parents.
5. Food is scarce: A large segment of the Canadian population faces food insecurity as population growth, unpredictable crop yields, disrupted trade, and agricultural monopolies lead to volatile availability and increased food pricing.
6. Men are in crisis: Boys and men face unprecedented levels of educational dropout, unemployment, and loneliness as traditional gender roles are challenged.
7. People cannot tell what is true and what is not: The information ecosystem is flooded with human- and AI-generated content. Mis/disinformation make it almost impossible to know what is fake or real. It is much harder to know what or who to trust.
8. Values-based clashes divide society: Canada is divided by unsurmountable conflicts over values, identity, and culture. Clashes, at times violent, erupt regularly on issues such as immigration, climate change, Indigenous rights, and 2SLGBTQIA+ rights.

Economy

9. Biodata is widely monetized: Business models rely on collecting individuals’ biological data, including fingerprints, iris scans, facial images, health information, and DNA. The data is traded or sold, and used for profiling, marketing, and targeted data collection.
10. Energy is inaccessible and unreliable: The transition from fossil fuels to renewables is more geopolitically complex than anticipated, leading to uneven adoption around the globe. Many people in Canada face energy uncertainty in terms of availability, reliability, and cost.
11. Homemade bioweapons go viral: A trend emerges whereby individuals can easily create cheap but powerful bioweapons with readily available technology and minimal infrastructure.
12. Household debt reaches a tipping point: Unsustainable levels of spending and debt combined with high interest rates drastically limit people’s ability to spend, lease, or borrow. People file for bankruptcy, sell their assets, and exit the home ownership market.
13. Immigrants do not choose Canada: Canada loses the global competition for highly skilled and upwardly mobile immigrants. Amid affordability problems, housing shortages, and a lack of healthcare, Canada ceases to be a sought-after destination.
14. Infrastructure and property are uninsurable: The impacts and frequency of climate-related disasters cause underwriters to increase rates and impose strict conditions in certain areas, preventing people from insuring their properties and getting mortgages. Entire areas are no longer serviced by the insurance industry.
15. Large economies face public debt crises: Large economies default on their loans and pull back on their international commitments and spending in healthcare, education, and other public services.
16. People cannot afford to live on their own: Canadians commonly live with extended family, other families, or many other people, as the housing crisis persists and multigenerational living is more widely accepted.
17. Space is commercialized and underregulated: The rapid expansion of space activity increases the number of state and private actors, while geopolitical competition blocks the development of a comprehensive legislative framework for regulating economic, scientific, and military activity in space.
18. The North experiences an economic boom: Climate change opens the Arctic trade routes and economic activity expands in Canada’s Northern territories.
19. Vital natural resources are scarce: The demand for vital natural resources such as water, sand, and critical minerals outpaces supply. Access to resources is either limited by a dwindling finite supply or controlled by a few suppliers.

Environment

20. Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse: There is an irreversible loss of biodiversity and a collapse of ecosystems due to habitat destruction, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change.
21. Emergency response is overwhelmed: Extreme weather events such as fires, floods, tornados, and hurricanes are frequent and severe. The world is in a perpetual state of emergency, and unable to respond adequately and sustainably.
22. Geoengineering takes off: Technologies designed to reduce the Earth’s temperature and the effects of climate change, such as carbon removal and solar geoengineering (reflecting sunlight away from the Earth) are widely deployed.
23. Healthy environments are a human right: People assert their right to live in a healthy environment and hold institutions accountable.
24. Many Canadian regions become uninhabitable: Many Canadians relocate due to worsening climate change impacts, as extreme weather conditions such as wildfires, flooding, low air quality, and intolerable heat become the norm.

Health

25. Antibiotics no longer work: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has reached critical levels. AMR is the leading cause of death globally, and food systems are disrupted as it is more expensive for producers to ensure animal or plant health.
26. Healthcare systems collapse: The healthcare system breaks down and cannot respond to the daily needs of Canadians, much less to crises.
27. Mental health is in crisis: Mental health deteriorates to crisis levels as Canadians grapple with multiple crises like those related to climate change and the cost of living. Meanwhile, people feel increasingly isolated from one another as societal divisions exacerbate loneliness.

Politics/Geopolitics

28. Billionaires run the world: Extremely wealthy people shape public policy through their platforms, firms, foundations, and investments—imposing their individual values and beliefs, and bypassing democratic governance principles.
29. Canadian national unity unravels: The sense of shared identity and common purpose that has underpinned Canadian unity is eroding dramatically. Separatist movements operate in some provinces and territories. People feel disconnected from Canada, its culture, values, climate goals, and economic priorities.
30. Civil war erupts in the United States: U.S. ideological divisions, democratic erosion, and domestic unrest escalate, plunging the country into civil war.
31. Cyberattacks disable critical infrastructure: Interruptions to essential services such as the Internet, electricity, transportation, water, and food supply systems are common due to regular cyberattacks, disrupting everyday life.
32. Democratic systems break down: Authoritarian regimes vastly outnumber democracies and the struggle between the two ideologies is messy in many countries. Some authoritarian countries experience regular pro-democracy protests, while in many democratic countries, duly elected officials pass legislation that dismantles key democratic institutions.
33. Indigenous peoples govern unceded territory: Indigenous peoples are formally involved in the governance of unceded territories across Canada, including in densely populated areas.
34. International alliances are in constant flux: Geopolitical lines are redrawn often and quickly around technology, values, and economic interests. Alliances form and break on an ad-hoc basis, based on preferences and beliefs rather than fixed factors such as historical trade relations or geographical proximity.
35. World war breaks out: Tensions between the world’s powers escalate as new rivalries, alliances, and blocs emerge. Diminishing trust, the assertion of values, acts of interference, the battle for technological superiority, and the fight over natural resources and supply chains propel great powers into a world war, forcing other countries to pick sides.

They conclude with this truly scary thought: What if these disruptions occur at the same time, creating a perfect storm and a unique set of combined circumstances for Canada to face?

Read the full report here.

My take: this is a fascinating, albeit potentially bleak, peek into the future that can be used by both documentarists and fiction screenwriters to outline their next films.